Dear Team,

I should clarify why I want to sell everything and put the money in a savings account. You see I tallied some numbers and came to a conclusion that big tech has very limited upside and a whole lot of downside. I tallied the m3 money supply versus the total s&p market Cap starting from 1995 until 2026. I found that under normal conditions the s&p market Cap is about 70% higher than the money supply - basically its 1.7 times leverage. However currently that leverage has grown to 3 times. To put it into perspective, the peak of the dot com boom in 2000 had a leverage of 2.5 times. Now I know that the current PEs of the companies are a lot lower than they were in 2000, but I also know that there is only so much money in the world to invest. Basically the well is dry - there is very little capital left globally to support another double or triple of the big 7 S&P companies. Because it is in these big seven that I am invested I would like to sell. Google's AI is magnificent and so is chat-gpt5. There really is no need to invest heavily in further upgrades. What they will do now is increase their compute capacity and market the models to big corporations. However, I don't believe their revenues will double, and if they do, it won't be for another 15 years. And furthermore, if you consider market mentality, who in their right mind would invest in NVIDIA now hoping for a double when there is so much risk. I see a sideways market. Or worse a retraction, especially since China now has time to catch up and when they do their models will be cheaper and so will their chips. I still believe Hollywood is the endgame and we will enter an 80's loop, but that won't happen for another 80 years. I'm only saying this now so that nobody thinks I have inside information. Because I am becoming king soon and I am not sure when I will be asked to reset the clocks plus because I believe that I can make a better dividend in a savings account if you can get me 1% or better (Remember I am getting 0.38% currently - if I can get 1% or better it is as good as a triple in the stock market) I think it is time to sell - the music isn't going to stop but it will slow dramatically.


The following link will show my spreadsheet with the current dollar leverage -> S&P Capital Leverage

Here is the Z-Score of the S&P500 vs M3 Money supply. Notice that we are approaching 3 standard deviations, we are currently at 2.65 standard deviations from the norm, which puts us at 0.996. That is a 99.6% confidence level that the market is over bought based on the M3 money supply.

The following chart shows the Z-Score for the ratio of S&P market cap to m3 money supply -> S&P Capital Leverage Score This will be known as the Arthur Indicator...

Sincerely,

King Arthur Alexander Henry George of Britain

Aug 07, 2026